Why the Individual Mandate won't work for Health Reform

We've heard a lot about the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act. The first year it will be 1% or $95 (whichever is more). It then goes up to 2.5% or equal to the lowest cost Bronze Level plan (whichever is more). Refer to page 12 of the following: http://www.irs.gov/PUP/newsroom/REG-148500-12%20FR.pdf.

There are a number of exemptions available which people haven't talked about, but are very important. Here they are (taken from http://www.irs.gov/uac/Questions-and-Answers-on-the-Individual-Shared-Responsibility-Provision):
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6. What are the statutory exemptions from the requirement to obtain minimum essential coverage?

1. Religious conscience: You are a member of a religious sect that is recognized as conscientiously opposed to accepting any insurance benefits. The Social Security Administration administers the process for recognizing these sects according to the criteria in the law.
2. Health care sharing ministry: You are a member of a recognized health care sharing ministry.
3. Indian tribes: You are a member of a federally recognized Indian tribe.
4. No filing requirement: Your household income is below the minimum threshold for filing a tax return. The requirement to file a federal tax return depends on your filing status, age, and types and amounts of income. To find out if you are required to file a federal tax return, use the IRSInteractive Tax Assistant (ITA).
5. Short coverage gap: You went without coverage for less than three consecutive months during the year. For more information see question 22.
6. Hardship: A Health Insurance Marketplace, also known as an Affordable Insurance Exchange, has certified that you have suffered a hardship that makes you unable to obtain coverage.
7. Unaffordable coverage options: You can’t afford coverage because the minimum amount you must pay for the premiums is more than eight percent of your household income.
8. Incarceration: You are in a jail, prison, or similar penal institution or correctional facility after the disposition of charges against you.
9. Not lawfully present: You are neither a U.S. citizen, a U.S. national, nor an alien lawfully present in the U.S.

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Unaffordable Coverage Option (#7)

I'd like to focus on just one of the 9 exemptions, the Unaffordable coverage option (#7). If you surf out to the Kaiser Family Foundation's subsidy calculator (http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/) and plug in a family of 4. The projected premium is $12,887/year for the second lowest Silver Plan. The projected premium for a Bronze level plan is $10,681/year.

If you divide $10,681 by 0.08, you'd need to make more than $133,512.50/year to receive a penalty if you decide to forego coverage (8% of $133,512.50 equals $10,681). That means there are a lot of people who will NEVER be faced with a penalty. Of course if you were, you'd just have to fill out the religious exemption section listing something like being a Christian Scientist or other religious organization that does not believe in traditional medicine.

How the IRS Collects the Penalty

Furthermore, the only way the IRS can collect this penalty is via your income tax return. If you don't pay income tax, then it's pretty hard for them to come after you as they are not allowed to garnish wages or freeze bank accounts. The last statistic I heard about the percentage of Americans who don't pay income tax was 47% (see http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/mitt-romneys-47-percent-pay-income-taxes/story?id=17263629). So this mandate won't impact almost 1/2 the country.

So, whatever the CBO scores say about the number of people who will pay a penalty, my guess is that it will be much lower than expected.

Heck, if I were a young invincible, I'd happily pay the $95/year to save $2000/year in premium. That would be extra beer money. As I didn't have any assets and low income, there really is nothing for the doctors and hospitals to take from me if I had an illness (BTW, it's already a law that if you show up at the Emergency Room, they must treat you). The challenging part would be if I had expensive medications, but that's easily remedied through programs with the major pharmaceutical companies to supplement the cost to low income people. Then at open enrollment time, I'd sign up for a plan that starts January 1st of the following year. As there are no pre-existing conditions anymore, my conditions would be covered.

Of course if I wanted insurance sooner, I could just marry someone. This is considered a qualified reason (gaining a dependent) which allows me to get the insurance sooner. Once I had the insurance, we could get the marriage annulled (yet another qualified reason).

So why buy health insurance?

Health insurance is important because of the potential of taking your life savings on a major illness (I've seen it numerous times). It also helps give access to the top doctors and hospitals. If the government wants people to buy health insurance, they must focus on the reasons to buy and not on the penalties.

Frankly, there are three kinds of personal insurance coverage needed to protect against catastrophic loss due to health/death. The first is health insurance, the second is life insurance (to keep your beneficiaries living in the same lifestyle instead of having to sell everything), and disability insurance. The most overlooked is disability insurance.

Cash Machine

Imagine you had a cash machine in your home. It legally produced $1,000 -- $10,000/week every week of the year. My question is how much would you spend to make sure that income came in every week for the next 10 - 40 years? Would you spend $50/week?, $500/week?, or more to assure it keeps coming in?

If you would spend the money to protect the machine, then disability insurance makes sense. You are that cash machine. If you can't work, the money won't come in and you'll have nothing to live on.

The reason why people go into bankruptcy due to medical debt is because they have no income coming in during the illness. If you don't have money to pay for your premiums (because you are buying food or paying rent), then the policy lapses. Once the policy lapses, you are on the hook for all subsequent expenses. 

Questions

If you have questions on health reform, need a help with any of the above insurance products (for both individuals and businesses), please give me a call or shoot me an email.